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SP500 DayTrader

Futures · Started Jan 2017

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.8%
Max Drawdown
28.4%
Trades
32
Win Trades
65.6%
Profit Factor
2.60
Win Months
2.6%

About this strategy

SP500 DayTrader is a clear and realistic strategy based on technical analysis .







its a conservative system designed to achieve the highest ROI possible at the lowest risk.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20175.26.3-4.947.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.057.2
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/31/2017
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age117 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades32
# Profitable21
% Profitable65.6%
Avg trade duration1.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown28.4%
drawdown periodFeb 08, 2017 - March 09, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)4.8%
Avg win$1,227
Avg loss$891

Ratios

W:L ratio2.63
Sharpe Ratio0.23
Sortino Ratio0.42
Calmar Ratio1.46

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life236.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-179.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$891
Avg Win$1,227
# Winners21
Sum Trade PL (losers)$9,800
Sum Trade PL (winners)$25,763
Num Months Winners3
# Losers11
% Winners65.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table117

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2731.55
Avg Position Time (hrs)45.53
Avg Trade Length1.90
Last Trade Ago3418

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.99

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.51
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.61
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats92.41
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats76.96
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.92
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.66
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.40

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.32
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.88
df18
t1.16
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.47
Sortino ratio43.36
Upside Potential Ratio46.54
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms16
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.72
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.02
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.49
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error17
t(b)-0.82
p(b)0.62
t(a)1.41
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
Mean0.27
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df18
t1.17
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.47
Sortino ratio36.71
Upside Potential Ratio39.88
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms16
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.66
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.02
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error17
t(b)-0.80
p(b)0.62
t(a)1.41
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.30
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df431
t1.39
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.61
Sortino ratio1.97
Upside Potential Ratio5.05
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms394
N of observations432
Mean of predictor0.79
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error430
t(b)0.20
p(b)0.42
t(a)1.36
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.71
Treynor index (mean / b)44.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
Mean0.26
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.97
df431
t1.25
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.50
Sortino ratio1.67
Upside Potential Ratio4.72
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms394
N of observations432
Mean of predictor0.71
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error430
t(b)0.23
p(b)0.41
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)35.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.02
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6812692157300736
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.31480667092793e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.43
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations432
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high38
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.10
Quartile 10.12
Median0.14
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.10
Mean of quarter 20.14
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-424136736
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)29
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.35
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.49
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.46
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.46
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.24
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 3 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M7long5Apr 11, 2017Apr 24, 2017$5,898
ES M7short5Apr 7, 2017Apr 10, 2017$2,160
ES M7long4Apr 5, 2017Apr 7, 2017$2,518
ES M7short4Mar 28, 2017Apr 5, 2017($132)
ES M7long4Mar 23, 2017Mar 28, 2017$168
ES M7short5Mar 23, 2017Mar 23, 2017$1,960
ES M7long6Mar 21, 2017Mar 23, 2017$2,677
ES H7long3Mar 3, 2017Mar 17, 2017$1,401
ES H7long3Mar 2, 2017Mar 3, 2017($1,524)
ES H7long2Mar 1, 2017Mar 2, 2017($1,016)
ES H7short2Mar 1, 2017Mar 1, 2017($216)
ES H7short2Mar 1, 2017Mar 1, 2017($1,016)
ES H7short2Mar 1, 2017Mar 1, 2017($1,016)
ES H7short2Feb 27, 2017Feb 28, 2017$509
ES H7long2Feb 24, 2017Feb 24, 2017$284
ES H7long2Feb 23, 2017Feb 23, 2017$884
ES H7short2Feb 23, 2017Feb 23, 2017$9
ES H7short2Feb 21, 2017Feb 22, 2017$384
ES H7short2Feb 21, 2017Feb 21, 2017$234
ES H7short2Feb 19, 2017Feb 21, 2017($1,016)
ES H7long2Feb 16, 2017Feb 16, 2017$409
ES H7short2Feb 15, 2017Feb 16, 2017$984
ES H7short2Feb 15, 2017Feb 15, 2017($1,016)
ES H7long2Feb 15, 2017Feb 15, 2017$534
ES H7short2Feb 13, 2017Feb 15, 2017($1,016)
ES H7short2Feb 12, 2017Feb 13, 2017($1,016)
ES H7short2Feb 8, 2017Feb 9, 2017($1,016)
ES H7short2Feb 6, 2017Feb 8, 2017$984
ES H7long2Feb 2, 2017Feb 2, 2017$984
ES H7short2Feb 1, 2017Feb 1, 2017$984

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.