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FS Pro

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
23.2%
Max Drawdown
28.9%
Trades
397
Win Trades
49.1%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
14.0%

About this strategy

FS Pro is a systematic trading strategy designed to take advantage of short term price moves of markets. Multiple risk controls are used to determine position sizes. When there are no high probability trades, the system will be out of the market. The system is designed to maximize long-term, compounded returns with manageable drawdowns. Because of the number of short term trades, transaction costs will be significant. The program trades active U.S. futures contracts, entering and exiting the trades within days. Funds are shifted to those markets showing the best opportunities. Stop orders, limit orders, or market orders may be used to enter or exit markets at the discretion of the manager.

The minimum capital commitment to this program should be at least equal to Total System Equity shown for the account. A majority of the equity may be used for the daily margin requirements. Less capital will lead to greater volatility, larger percentage drawdowns, and missed trades. Scaling at less than 100% may result in performance different from the model and is not recommended.


Futures trading involves high risk and actual results are not guaranteed and may vary from expectations.

Momentum Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20195.1-12.18.211.9-17.03.26.33.115.48.72.512.451.5
20208.012.2-4.7-18.40.2-1.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-6.4
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/1/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age94 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades397
# Profitable195
% Profitable49.1%
Avg trade duration1.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown28.9%
drawdown periodApril 11, 2019 - May 21, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)23.2%
Avg win$539
Avg loss$436

Ratios

W:L ratio1.19
Sharpe Ratio0.22
Sortino Ratio0.36
Calmar Ratio1.20

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life206.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)15.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)23.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity33.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss53.5%
Chance of 20% account loss15.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)526
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$436
Avg Win$539
# Winners195
Sum Trade PL (losers)$88,099
Sum Trade PL (winners)$105,168
Num Months Winners13
# Losers202
% Winners49.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table93

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1778.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)29.64
Avg Trade Length1.20
Last Trade Ago2279

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.28
Daily leverage (max)20.15

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.04
Treynor Index-0.27

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.39
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.28
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats68.37
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.36
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.42
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.09
df16
t1.36
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.78
Sortino ratio1.91
Upside Potential Ratio3.43
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms5
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance-0.03
r-0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error15
t(b)-1.28
p(b)0.70
t(a)1.57
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
Mean0.35
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df16
t1.13
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.58
Sortino ratio1.47
Upside Potential Ratio2.98
Upside part of mean0.71
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms5
N of observations17
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.03
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.38
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error15
t(b)-1.19
p(b)0.68
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.37
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.24
df382
t1.50
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.86
Sortino ratio2.21
Upside Potential Ratio9.78
Upside part of mean1.65
Downside part of mean-1.28
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms164
N negative terms219
N of observations383
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error381
t(b)-1.86
p(b)0.97
t(a)1.56
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.87
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
Mean0.33
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.11
df382
t1.34
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio1.92
Upside Potential Ratio9.45
Upside part of mean1.62
Downside part of mean-1.29
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms164
N negative terms219
N of observations383
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error381
t(b)-1.79
p(b)0.96
t(a)1.38
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.82
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.03
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df130
t0.06
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.85
Sortino ratio0.15
Upside Potential Ratio7.53
Upside part of mean1.25
Downside part of mean-1.23
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms83
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.04
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.02
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error129
t(b)-1.83
p(b)0.60
t(a)0.05
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean-0.02
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df130
t-0.05
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.84
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.70
Sortino ratio-0.13
Upside Potential Ratio7.21
Upside part of mean1.22
Downside part of mean-1.24
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms83
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.15
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.02
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error129
t(b)-1.80
p(b)0.60
t(a)-0.09
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations17
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11.00
Median1.04
Quartile 31.12
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.10
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.88
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations383
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.10
Median0.14
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.13
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.25
Mean of outliers low0.00
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.25
Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.08
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-256965952
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)40
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.46
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.73
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.73
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.66
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.47
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.88
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.78
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.95
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.03
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.15

Trading record

Placed 1 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@SB V0short3Jun 26, 2020Jun 26, 2020$547
@CT Z0long1Jun 24, 2020Jun 26, 2020($263)
@CC U0long1Jun 25, 2020Jun 25, 2020$552
@SM Z0long1Jun 24, 2020Jun 25, 2020($78)
@SM N0long4Jun 18, 2020Jun 19, 2020($752)
@C N0long2Jun 18, 2020Jun 18, 2020($429)
@S N0long1Jun 18, 2020Jun 18, 2020($183)
@BO N0long1Jun 15, 2020Jun 16, 2020$160
@W N0long1Jun 15, 2020Jun 16, 2020($308)
@SM N0long1Jun 12, 2020Jun 14, 2020($228)
QNG N0short1Jun 12, 2020Jun 12, 2020$312
@GF Q0short1Jun 10, 2020Jun 10, 2020$155
@LE Q0short1Jun 10, 2020Jun 10, 2020$122
QNG N0long1Jun 9, 2020Jun 9, 2020($668)
@SM N0long2Jun 3, 2020Jun 4, 2020$924
@JY M0short1May 26, 2020May 26, 2020($371)
@C N0long8May 26, 2020May 26, 2020($364)
@C N0short7May 20, 2020May 22, 2020$394
@KC N0short1May 20, 2020May 21, 2020($64)
@C N0long4May 18, 2020May 19, 2020($232)
@C N0long4May 15, 2020May 18, 2020$56
@SB N0long2May 14, 2020May 14, 2020$230
@SM N0long4May 7, 2020May 13, 2020$188
@W N0long4May 10, 2020May 11, 2020($1,632)
@CC N0long3May 7, 2020May 11, 2020$1,426
@W N0long2May 7, 2020May 7, 2020($91)
@TY M0short3May 5, 2020May 6, 2020$773
@GF Q0short1Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020$30
@EU M0short2Apr 30, 2020Apr 30, 2020($1,104)
QSI N0long1Apr 29, 2020Apr 30, 2020($1,733)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.