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JFC GLOBAL MACRO

Equity · Stocks · Started Apr 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
70
Win Trades
52.9%
Profit Factor
0.40
Win Months
53.3%

About this strategy

The investment process is based on movements in underlying economic variables and the impact these have on equity, fixed income, currencies and commodity markets. We are applying a variety of techniques: discretionary and systematic analysis, combination of top down and bottom up theses, quantitative and fundamental approaches and relatively long term holding periods.
Our goal with this strategy is not to outperform the market with large and leveraged short term positions, but to achieve consistent long term growth and capital protection through all market environments. Our focus is on low market correlation with long-term stable and maximized positive returns.
Each change in the portfolio is announced one day before the change with a full elaboration of why the change is being made, our target price for the asset that is going to be traded and its capital allocation size in the overall portfolio.

Hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2019-0.66.29.20.16.8-2.70.61.1-0.920.9
20203.32.5-9.15.62.00.33.82.5-1.5-0.65.56.221.2
2021-1.43.50.80.8-3.11.84.01.9-2.17.6-0.9-3.29.5
2022-6.1-2.12.6-5.7-3.7-6.83.7-4.5-6.13.03.8-3.8-23.6
20236.3-4.13.02.0-3.2-3.51.7-3.0-2.41.69.34.211.5
20241.96.83.6-37.35.4-3.05.7-3.33.9-0.014.9-4.2-15.5
20256.2-4.6-2.42.58.91.72.91.20.22.1-194.1-2.9-209.3
2026-1.8-5.6-1.1-5.4-0.4-6.3-1.2-9.5-3.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/24/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age90 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades70
# Profitable37
% Profitable52.9%
Avg trade duration430.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 24, 2019 - June 30, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$1,722
Avg loss$5,614

Ratios

W:L ratio0.40
Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Sortino Ratio-0.27
Calmar Ratio-0.99

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life161.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-392.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$5,614
Avg Win$1,722
# Winners37
Sum Trade PL (losers)$185,252
Sum Trade PL (winners)$63,730
Num Months Winners48
# Losers33
% Winners52.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct9533

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table80

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)620292.44
Avg Position Time (hrs)10338.21
Avg Trade Length430.80
Last Trade Ago2376

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.39
Daily leverage (max)2.02

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.47
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat2.28
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.62
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.78
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats75.77
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats6.16
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.11
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.03
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-4.85

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.28
SD0.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.36
df26
t-0.56
p0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio-0.39
Upside Potential Ratio0.65
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.70
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms9
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion-0.28
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.74
Covariance0.01
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.31
Mean Square Error0.56
DF error25
t(b)0.17
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.58
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.80
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.67
Jensen alpha (a)-0.31
Mean-4.84
SD7.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.63
df26
t-0.97
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.69
Sortino ratio-0.65
Upside Potential Ratio0.06
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-5.27
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD7.45
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms9
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion-4.84
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion7.46
Covariance-0.37
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.59
Mean Square Error56.60
DF error25
t(b)-0.74
p(b)0.77
t(a)-0.68
p(a)0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-12.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-14.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.30
Treynor index (mean / b)1.50
Jensen alpha (a)-3.59
VaR(95%)0.98
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
Mean-0.25
SD0.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.34
df592
t-0.51
p0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.96
Sortino ratio-0.35
Upside Potential Ratio1.74
Upside part of mean1.25
Downside part of mean-1.50
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.72
N nonnegative terms322
N negative terms271
N of observations593
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.74
Covariance0.06
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.48
Mean Square Error0.52
DF error591
t(b)5.79
p(b)0
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.50
Jensen alpha (a)-0.48
Mean-4.81
SD7.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.65
df592
t-0.97
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.66
Sortino ratio-0.65
Upside Potential Ratio0.17
Upside part of mean1.23
Downside part of mean-6.04
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD7.43
N nonnegative terms322
N negative terms271
N of observations593
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion-4.81
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion7.44
Covariance0.26
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-5.67
Mean Square Error54.81
DF error591
t(b)2.47
p(b)0.01
t(a)-1.15
p(a)0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-15.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.19
Jensen alpha (a)-5.67
VaR(95%)0.54
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.61
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-1.92
SD1.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.23
df130
t-0.87
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.55
Sortino ratio-1.27
Upside Potential Ratio1.76
Upside part of mean2.66
Downside part of mean-4.58
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD1.51
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms79
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-1.92
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion1.56
Covariance0.22
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.12
Mean Square Error2.20
DF error129
t(b)3.74
p(b)0.30
t(a)-1.47
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.08
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.81
Jensen alpha (a)-3.12
Mean-22.50
SD15.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.41
df130
t-1.01
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio-1.42
Upside Potential Ratio0.16
Upside part of mean2.60
Downside part of mean-25.11
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD15.81
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms79
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-22.50
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion15.82
Covariance1.18
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)5.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-28.24
Mean Square Error245.43
DF error129
t(b)1.87
p(b)0.40
t(a)-1.26
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta11.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-72.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha16.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.03
Jensen alpha (a)-28.24
VaR(95%)0.82
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.87
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1.03
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.77
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.54
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.17
Number of observations593
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high38
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.78
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)2.65

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.31
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.28
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations24
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.66
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.20
Quartile 10.40
Median0.60
Quartile 30.80
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.20
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.40
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-398849408
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2624
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-4.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.61
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.15

Trading record

Placed 36 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DBC long235Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020($1,164)
GLD long25Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020($191)
GBTC long199Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020($611)
BIV long106Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020($288)
TLT long181Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020$1,685
DIA long26Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020($2,259)
ADBE long4Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020($152)
SSNC long20Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020($520)
INTU long5Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020($290)
NFLX long4Jan 8, 2020Mar 19, 2020($14)
STAA long35Jan 8, 2020Mar 2, 2020($118)
VEEV long9Jan 8, 2020Feb 24, 2020$94
INVH long42Jan 8, 2020Feb 24, 2020$55
AYX long11Jan 8, 2020Feb 24, 2020$99
Y long2Jan 8, 2020Jan 9, 2020($8)
DBC long237Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$231
AMD long41Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$771
DIA long36Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$599
STAA long43Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$271
NFLX long5Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$365
GLD long25Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$142
NOW long5Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$187
AYX long11Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$21
ACIA long19Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$70
BIV long103Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020$3
GBTC long169Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020($241)
TLT long170Sep 25, 2019Jan 6, 2020($458)
LSCC long61Sep 25, 2019Nov 19, 2019($42)
AMD long28Aug 19, 2019Sep 23, 2019($29)
NOW long6Aug 19, 2019Sep 23, 2019$69

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.