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Russell ES

Futures · Futures · Started Jul 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
67.9%
Max Drawdown
38.9%
Trades
601
Win Trades
57.2%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
19.8%

About this strategy

mainly trade RTY, mini DAX, ES

Momentum Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20191.49.59.60.91.70.825.9
20200.59.82.332.85.73.90.71.63.7-28.120.726.291.6
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/4/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$18,750
Age88 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades601
# Profitable344
% Profitable57.2%
Avg trade duration2.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown38.9%
drawdown periodOct 08, 2020 - Dec 04, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)67.9%
Avg win$324
Avg loss$304

Ratios

W:L ratio1.43
Sharpe Ratio0.56
Sortino Ratio1.08
Calmar Ratio1.93

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life157.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)110.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)67.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.7%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)15.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated98.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)747
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)437

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$304
Avg Win$324
# Winners344
Sum Trade PL (losers)$78,031
Sum Trade PL (winners)$111,571
Num Months Winners17
# Losers257
% Winners57.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table86

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)152.78
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.55
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago2104

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)6.17
Daily leverage (max)42.06

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.03
Treynor Index1.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-10.60
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.41
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats61.46
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats77.14
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.85
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.72
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.64
df18
t2.15
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.28
Sortino ratio3.62
Upside Potential Ratio4.56
Upside part of mean0.90
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms4
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.72
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.70
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error17
t(b)0.15
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.98
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.45
Treynor index (mean / b)7.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.70
Mean0.62
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.48
df18
t1.94
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.11
Sortino ratio2.73
Upside Potential Ratio3.66
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms4
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.62
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error17
t(b)0.06
p(b)0.49
t(a)1.82
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.33
Treynor index (mean / b)17.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.64
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.98
df431
t2.55
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.52
Sortino ratio4.16
Upside Potential Ratio8.27
Upside part of mean1.28
Downside part of mean-0.64
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms156
N negative terms276
N of observations432
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.64
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error430
t(b)0.51
p(b)0.30
t(a)2.53
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.14
Treynor index (mean / b)22.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.64
Mean0.59
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.90
df431
t2.44
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.43
Sortino ratio3.73
Upside Potential Ratio7.80
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms156
N negative terms276
N of observations432
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.59
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error430
t(b)0.57
p(b)0.29
t(a)2.42
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.07
Treynor index (mean / b)19.73
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.50
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.97
df130
t0.69
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.75
Sortino ratio1.97
Upside Potential Ratio7.17
Upside part of mean1.81
Downside part of mean-1.32
Upside SD0.44
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms105
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error129
t(b)-0.16
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.70
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.94
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
Mean0.38
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df130
t0.55
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.54
Sortino ratio1.45
Upside Potential Ratio6.62
Upside part of mean1.73
Downside part of mean-1.35
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms105
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.38
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error129
t(b)-0.12
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.55
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.96
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.76
Quartile 11.01
Median1.07
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.38
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.76
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.38
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations432
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low48
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high73
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low29
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations35
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.41
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-314480928
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)57
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.91
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.72
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.34
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.86
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.92
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs11.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal23.42
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.45
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.50
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.69
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.69
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.51

Trading record

Placed 1160 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DXM H1short6Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020$966
@RTY H1long8Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020$856
@RTY H1short8Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020$1,976
@RTY H1long8Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020$1,856
@RTY H1short8Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020$1,256
@RTY H1long8Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020$2,456
@RTY H1short8Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020$1,656
@YM H1long4Dec 9, 2020Dec 9, 2020$648
@RTY H1long8Dec 8, 2020Dec 8, 2020$1,776
@RTY H1long10Dec 8, 2020Dec 8, 2020($180)
DXM H1short5Dec 8, 2020Dec 8, 2020($40)
XG H1long1Dec 8, 2020Dec 8, 2020$431
@RTY H1long9Dec 7, 2020Dec 7, 2020$1,208
DXM H1long5Dec 7, 2020Dec 7, 2020$324
@RTY H1long7Dec 7, 2020Dec 7, 2020($56)
@RTY H1short10Dec 7, 2020Dec 7, 2020$1,990
@RTY H1long8Dec 7, 2020Dec 7, 2020($64)
@RTY H1long8Dec 7, 2020Dec 7, 2020($64)
@RTY Z0short6Dec 6, 2020Dec 7, 2020$2,352
@RTY Z0long6Dec 4, 2020Dec 4, 2020($423)
DXM Z0long2Dec 4, 2020Dec 4, 2020$33
@NQ Z0short2Dec 3, 2020Dec 3, 2020($1,524)
@NQ Z0long2Dec 3, 2020Dec 3, 2020($774)
@NQ Z0short2Dec 3, 2020Dec 3, 2020($672)
DXM Z0long2Dec 3, 2020Dec 3, 2020($562)
@NQ Z0long4Dec 2, 2020Dec 2, 2020$1,678
@RTY Z0long2Dec 2, 2020Dec 2, 2020$24
@NQ Z0long5Dec 2, 2020Dec 2, 2020($1,264)
@NQ Z0short4Dec 2, 2020Dec 2, 2020($1,632)
@NQ Z0long2Dec 2, 2020Dec 2, 2020($1,458)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.