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Option Arbitrage

Options · Options · Started Nov 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-13.8%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
78
Win Trades
71.8%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
40.5%

About this strategy

I take advantage of an inaccurate option pricing to gain a statistical advantage in the market, and make huge returns over time.

Premium Collecting

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2019-11.61.3-10.5
202015.233.2-31.73.111.512.54.310.6-0.016.02.6-2.381.7
20211.47.4-11.7-4.1-39.2-32.5-116.2-18.0-15.3-15.9-18.9-42.7-108.1
2022-48.0-2.4-10.0-9.8-8.8-33.6-77.5-43.1-436.0-30.5-76.7-749.2-176.0
202354.8-22.7-27.4114.4-51.728.8168.6-7.21.739.929.5-7.8391.2
202421.227.1-4.2-12.4-6.2-4.5-3.0-29.141.3-30.9-6.112.2-18.0
2025-47.96.011.4-17.915.024.0-37.419.620.439.7-16.04.5-20.3
2026-3.03.1-2.8-6.3-26.5-6.882.6-0.2-7.75.410.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/24/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age84 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades78
# Profitable56
% Profitable71.8%
Avg trade duration38.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJuly 01, 2021 - May 13, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)-13.8%
Avg win$1,024
Avg loss$4,061

Ratios

W:L ratio0.65
Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Sortino Ratio-0.19
Calmar Ratio-0.54

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life148.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-212.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-13.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-13.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity459.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Short Options - Percent Covered1.7%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$4,061
Avg Win$1,024
# Winners56
Sum Trade PL (losers)$89,348
Sum Trade PL (winners)$57,367
Num Months Winners12
# Losers22
% Winners71.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1080

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table21

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)54915.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)915.27
Avg Trade Length38.10
Last Trade Ago2410

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.07
Daily leverage (max)3.80

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.63
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.17
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.09
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.30
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.46
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.62
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.22

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean621.25
SD684.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df14
t1.01
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.64
Sortino ratio585.82
Upside Potential Ratio587.54
Upside part of mean623.07
Downside part of mean-1.83
Upside SD685.18
Downside SD1.06
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms6
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.82
Mean of criterion621.25
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion684.50
Covariance-12.08
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-71.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)679.47
Mean Square Error503658.84
DF error13
t(b)-0.15
p(b)0.53
t(a)0.92
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1066.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta924.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-914.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2273.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.71
Jensen alpha (a)679.47
Mean-0.81
SD12.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.06
df14
t-0.07
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.69
Sortino ratio-0.08
Upside Potential Ratio0.94
Upside part of mean9.21
Downside part of mean-10.02
Upside SD6.41
Downside SD9.85
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms6
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.72
Mean of criterion-0.81
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion12.16
Covariance0.17
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.56
Mean Square Error159.10
DF error13
t(b)0.12
p(b)0.48
t(a)-0.12
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-17.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta19.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-29.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha26.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.77
Jensen alpha (a)-1.56
VaR(95%)1.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR1.00
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.61
Mean652.95
SD518.89
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.26
df329
t1.41
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.00
Sortino ratio379.51
Upside Potential Ratio385.11
Upside part of mean662.59
Downside part of mean-9.64
Upside SD519.67
Downside SD1.72
N nonnegative terms199
N negative terms131
N of observations330
Mean of predictor0.82
Mean of criterion652.95
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion518.89
Covariance-7.22
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-39.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)685.12
Mean Square Error269785.44
DF error328
t(b)-0.59
p(b)0.72
t(a)1.47
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-170.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta92.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-231.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1601.90
Treynor index (mean / b)-16.59
Jensen alpha (a)685.12
Mean-0.77
SD13.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.06
df329
t-0.07
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.69
Sortino ratio-0.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.99
Upside part of mean20.65
Downside part of mean-21.42
Upside SD7.89
Downside SD10.35
N nonnegative terms199
N negative terms131
N of observations330
Mean of predictor0.72
Mean of criterion-0.77
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion13.03
Covariance-0.12
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.28
Mean Square Error170.33
DF error328
t(b)-0.40
p(b)0.65
t(a)-0.02
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-23.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha22.72
Treynor index (mean / b)1.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.28
VaR(95%)0.73
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.80
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean1648.03
SD821.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.99
df130
t1.42
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.78
Sortino ratio760.64
Upside Potential Ratio767.48
Upside part of mean1662.83
Downside part of mean-14.80
Upside SD824.80
Downside SD2.17
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms56
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.51
Mean of criterion1648.03
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion821.64
Covariance-22.82
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-144.98
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1866.98
Mean Square Error676989.38
DF error129
t(b)-0.80
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.56
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-504.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta214.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-498.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4232.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-11.37
Jensen alpha (a)1866.98
Mean19.71
SD15.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.30
df130
t0.92
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.07
Sortino ratio2.32
Upside Potential Ratio5.40
Upside part of mean45.93
Downside part of mean-26.22
Upside SD12.50
Downside SD8.51
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms56
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.43
Mean of criterion19.71
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion15.13
Covariance-0.25
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)22.01
Mean Square Error230.27
DF error129
t(b)-0.48
p(b)0.53
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.29
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-21.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha65.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.25
Jensen alpha (a)22.01
VaR(95%)0.77
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.83
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.25

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.71
Median1.15
Quartile 31.42
Maximum767
Mean of quarter 10.51
Mean of quarter 20.96
Mean of quarter 31.29
Mean of quarter 4195.46
Inter Quartile Range0.71
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high260.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.59
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.73
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations330
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.97
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum469
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 411.04
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low31
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.74
Number of outliers high32
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high26.94
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.94
Median1
Quartile 31.12
Maximum469
Mean of quarter 10.80
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 426.15
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.44
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high76.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.33

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.16
Median0.29
Quartile 30.65
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.29
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.49
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.07
Quartile 30.10
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.54
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.73
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.67
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.90
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.20
Median0.41
Quartile 30.56
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20.35
Mean of quarter 30.52
Mean of quarter 40.87
Inter Quartile Range0.36
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.87
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.87
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.20
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1276911744
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)316
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.56
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.56
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.56
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.49
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.67
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)38196
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)364771808
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)365820000
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs418850944
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal436896896

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TTD long100Mar 14, 2020Mar 23, 2020($10,152)
ROKU long200Mar 14, 2020Mar 23, 2020($6,710)
EHTH long300Mar 21, 2020Mar 23, 2020($5,427)
EHTH2020O120 short3Mar 9, 2020Mar 21, 2020$1,048
EDU2020O120 short3Mar 9, 2020Mar 21, 2020$733
GSX2020O35 short10Mar 9, 2020Mar 21, 2020$593
EDU2020O130 short3Mar 3, 2020Mar 21, 2020$1,048
LK long1000Mar 14, 2020Mar 16, 2020($4,115)
TTD2013O277.5 short1Mar 2, 2020Mar 14, 2020$1,249
LK2013O34.5 short10Mar 9, 2020Mar 14, 2020$793
ROKU2013O115 short4Feb 28, 2020Mar 14, 2020$2,336
LK2006O36.5 short10Mar 2, 2020Mar 7, 2020$1,093
MU2006O50 short8Feb 28, 2020Mar 7, 2020$1,322
BYND2006C96 short4Mar 2, 2020Mar 7, 2020$849
BYND long400Feb 29, 2020Mar 7, 2020($5,208)
PTON long500Feb 8, 2020Mar 3, 2020($2,450)
TTD2028N240 short2Feb 24, 2020Feb 29, 2020$799
BYND2028N109 short4Feb 24, 2020Feb 29, 2020$2,477
LK2028N35 short10Feb 24, 2020Feb 29, 2020$743
ROKU2028N115 short4Feb 24, 2020Feb 28, 2020($26)
BYND2021N108 short4Feb 13, 2020Feb 22, 2020$1,145
BYND2014N109 short3Feb 6, 2020Feb 15, 2020$832
TTD2014N282.5 short2Feb 6, 2020Feb 15, 2020$1,178
NVDA2014N262.5 short2Feb 13, 2020Feb 15, 2020$979
ROKU2014N130 short4Feb 13, 2020Feb 15, 2020$2,177
LYFT2014N44 short4Feb 6, 2020Feb 15, 2020$481
PTON2014N30 short5Jan 30, 2020Feb 14, 2020($307)
MU long300Feb 8, 2020Feb 13, 2020$702
ROKU long300Feb 8, 2020Feb 13, 2020$3,147
MU long700Feb 1, 2020Feb 6, 2020$2,480

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.