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ExitPoints - Forex

Futures · Forex · Started Dec 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-7.7%
Max Drawdown
68.2%
Trades
40
Win Trades
62.5%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
1.2%

About this strategy

Actively Traded With Our Own Money

ExitPoint's Principal, Thomas Register is actively trading this Forex trading system with his own money through Cannon Trading.  Since he started trading, his worst drawdown to date was an unrealized 20% during the Brexit vote in December -- and those trades were no nowhere near that when they closed and became realized. You can see that move in the performance charts. Thomas’s account has been trading Real Time with Real Money at Forex.com through Cannon Trading since May of 2018.  His actual account statements are posted on our website and available for your review.

Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2019-8.3-8.3
202015.0-4.2-42.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-36.6
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/3/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age82 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades40
# Profitable25
% Profitable62.5%
Avg trade duration7.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown68.2%
drawdown periodFeb 21, 2020 - March 09, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)-7.7%
Avg win$114
Avg loss$282

Ratios

W:L ratio0.67
Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Sortino Ratio-0.30
Calmar Ratio-0.47

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.13
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life146.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-189.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-7.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-4.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity96.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$282
Avg Win$114
# Winners25
Sum Trade PL (losers)$4,237
Sum Trade PL (winners)$2,839
Num Months Winners1
# Losers15
% Winners62.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table82

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)10946.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)182.44
Avg Trade Length7.60
Last Trade Ago2368

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)14.42
Daily leverage (max)44.92

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.15
Treynor Index-0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.09
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.14
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.22
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.97
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-4.75
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.68
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.96
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.14

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.28
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.84
df12
t-0.93
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.07
Sortino ratio-0.96
Upside Potential Ratio0.45
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms11
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.78
Mean of criterion-0.28
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.02
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.41
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error11
t(b)0.66
p(b)0.26
t(a)-1.12
p(a)0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.64
Jensen alpha (a)-0.41
Mean-0.33
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.91
df12
t-1.01
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.01
Sortino ratio-1.02
Upside Potential Ratio0.38
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms11
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.70
Mean of criterion-0.33
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.02
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.46
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error11
t(b)0.67
p(b)0.26
t(a)-1.19
p(a)0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.76
Jensen alpha (a)-0.46
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
Mean-0.16
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.30
df300
t-0.32
p0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio-0.37
Upside Potential Ratio2.18
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-1.07
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms267
N of observations301
Mean of predictor0.89
Mean of criterion-0.16
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance0.04
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.30
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error299
t(b)2.75
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.61
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.98
Jensen alpha (a)-0.30
Mean-0.31
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.54
df300
t-0.58
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.29
Sortino ratio-0.62
Upside Potential Ratio1.72
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-1.19
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms267
N of observations301
Mean of predictor0.76
Mean of criterion-0.31
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.05
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.46
Mean Square Error0.33
DF error299
t(b)2.94
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.85
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.63
Jensen alpha (a)-0.46
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.28
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.18
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6782473304276992
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.6191763467559e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.76
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.38
Number of observations301
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.28
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low35
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high34
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.37
Quartile 10.37
Median0.37
Quartile 30.37
Maximum0.37
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.52
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.34
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.61
Expected Shortfall (regression method)50.96
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-386007936
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)17
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.28
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.41
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/JPY long20Mar 3, 2020Mar 10, 2020($223)
USD/CHF long80Feb 24, 2020Mar 10, 2020($3,023)
USD/CAD short20Mar 2, 2020Mar 8, 2020($397)
GBP/USD long20Mar 2, 2020Mar 6, 2020$523
AUD/USD long50Feb 19, 2020Mar 3, 2020$151
GBP/USD long20Feb 20, 2020Feb 25, 2020$207
USD/CHF short20Feb 18, 2020Feb 24, 2020$146
EUR/USD long50Feb 9, 2020Feb 21, 2020($69)
EUR/JPY long30Feb 11, 2020Feb 19, 2020($11)
GBP/USD long20Feb 10, 2020Feb 14, 2020$245
USD/CAD short70Jan 9, 2020Feb 12, 2020($298)
GBP/JPY long20Jan 28, 2020Feb 5, 2020$83
USD/JPY long20Feb 3, 2020Feb 5, 2020$135
AUD/USD long30Jan 20, 2020Feb 4, 2020($179)
EUR/JPY long20Jan 26, 2020Feb 3, 2020($5)
USD/CHF short20Jan 29, 2020Jan 31, 2020$214
EUR/USD long20Jan 21, 2020Jan 31, 2020($0)
GBP/JPY short20Jan 13, 2020Jan 26, 2020$184
USD/JPY short10Jan 12, 2020Jan 24, 2020$20
EUR/JPY short10Jan 14, 2020Jan 21, 2020$33
USD/CHF long10Jan 15, 2020Jan 19, 2020$50
EUR/USD long10Jan 12, 2020Jan 16, 2020$17
GBP/USD long10Jan 14, 2020Jan 16, 2020$44
AUD/USD long10Jan 6, 2020Jan 16, 2020($44)
USD/CHF short10Jan 12, 2020Jan 14, 2020$80
GBP/JPY long10Jan 7, 2020Jan 9, 2020$47
EUR/JPY long10Jan 5, 2020Jan 9, 2020$68
USD/JPY long20Jan 7, 2020Jan 8, 2020$56
EUR/USD short10Jan 1, 2020Jan 5, 2020$61
EUR/JPY short10Dec 30, 2019Jan 2, 2020$46

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.