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SPY Master 2X

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.2%
Max Drawdown
30.2%
Trades
52
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
21.9%

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20143.59.3-3.3-5.5-4.6-0.62.27.2-2.96.95.36.324.7
20150.07.2-8.8-2.8-6.73.6-10.612.43.0-0.5-0.9-5.7-11.4
2016-14.49.815.51.84.3-9.7-0.5-2.80.5-7.17.84.15.3
20174.19.4-0.02.72.4-0.04.00.94.35.36.72.550.9
201812.8-2.5-2.8-3.81.36.3-3.76.31.5-16.30.00.0-3.8
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/13/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age155 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades52
# Profitable26
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration28.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown30.2%
drawdown periodMarch 02, 2015 - Feb 12, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)4.2%
Avg win$848
Avg loss$494

Ratios

W:L ratio1.74
Sharpe Ratio0.21
Sortino Ratio0.29
Calmar Ratio0.59

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life324.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-256.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity21.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss29.5%
Chance of 20% account loss7.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$494
Avg Win$848
# Winners26
Sum Trade PL (losers)$12,849
Sum Trade PL (winners)$22,051
Num Months Winners34
# Losers26
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct284

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table153

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)40459.13
Avg Position Time (hrs)674.32
Avg Trade Length28.10
Last Trade Ago3000

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.08
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-85.17
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.13
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats8.89
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats80.15
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.39
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.07
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df61
t1.46
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio1.12
Upside Potential Ratio2.74
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms33
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error60
t(b)0.37
p(b)0.36
t(a)1.25
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)2.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.10
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.55
df61
t1.27
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.42
Sortino ratio0.92
Upside Potential Ratio2.52
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms33
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error60
t(b)0.55
p(b)0.29
t(a)1.02
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)1.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.11
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df1374
t1.60
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio1.00
Upside Potential Ratio7.33
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms558
N negative terms817
N of observations1375
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1373
t(b)3.86
p(b)0.43
t(a)1.36
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)1.80
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.10
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df1374
t1.42
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.47
Sortino ratio0.87
Upside Potential Ratio7.16
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms558
N negative terms817
N of observations1375
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1373
t(b)3.78
p(b)0.44
t(a)1.22
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)1.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.98
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6812016236822528
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.10255759577357e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations62
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations1375
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low103
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high84
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.11
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations47
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-484565952
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)347
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.93
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.46
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.59
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.84
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SSO long161Jul 10, 2018Oct 24, 2018($1,520)
SDS long524Jun 21, 2018Jul 10, 2018($534)
SDS long524Jun 21, 2018Jun 21, 2018($10)
SSO long172May 4, 2018Jun 21, 2018$1,442
SSO long179Apr 17, 2018May 3, 2018($1,329)
SSO long179Mar 2, 2018Mar 22, 2018$28
SSO long179Feb 12, 2018Mar 1, 2018$283
SSO long181Aug 29, 2017Feb 5, 2018$4,130
SDS long339Aug 10, 2017Aug 29, 2017$17
SSO long183Jul 7, 2017Aug 10, 2017$390
SDS long1269Jun 29, 2017Jul 7, 2017($132)
SSO long182Nov 7, 2016Jun 29, 2017$3,833
SDS long687Nov 1, 2016Nov 4, 2016$112
SSO long186Oct 14, 2016Nov 1, 2016($423)
SSO long189Sep 12, 2016Oct 13, 2016($452)
SDS long794Aug 2, 2016Sep 12, 2016($204)
SSO long220Jun 15, 2016Jun 27, 2016($941)
SDS long793Jun 13, 2016Jun 15, 2016($37)
SSO long221May 9, 2016Jun 13, 2016$352
SDS long756Apr 28, 2016May 9, 2016$101
SSO long217Feb 12, 2016Apr 28, 2016$2,839
SSO long197Jan 5, 2016Jan 7, 2016($954)
SSO long201Nov 18, 2015Jan 4, 2016($864)
SDS long653Nov 13, 2015Nov 17, 2015($397)
SSO long237Sep 2, 2015Sep 22, 2015$16
SDS long580Jul 28, 2015Sep 2, 2015$1,317
SSO long185Jul 13, 2015Jul 28, 2015($324)
SDS long606May 26, 2015Jul 13, 2015($5)
SDS long623Mar 25, 2015May 20, 2015($746)
SDS long622Mar 10, 2015Mar 18, 2015($540)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.