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Algo 175356

Futures · Started Apr 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.9%
Max Drawdown
38.3%
Trades
296
Win Trades
52.4%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
9.4%
Subscribe Full access for $89/month

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20146.12.7-17.619.05.518.410.10.1-11.829.7
2015-3.1-1.95.9-4.2-13.010.59.525.1-12.83.93.8-5.412.9
2016-17.0-3.0-8.33.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-23.9
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/20/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age150 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades296
# Profitable155
% Profitable52.4%
Avg trade duration5.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown38.3%
drawdown periodSept 01, 2015 - April 01, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)0.9%
Avg win$492
Avg loss$478

Ratios

W:L ratio1.13
Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Sortino Ratio-0.01
Calmar Ratio0.57

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life311.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-301.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity47.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$478
Avg Win$492
# Winners155
Sum Trade PL (losers)$67,346
Sum Trade PL (winners)$76,286
Num Months Winners14
# Losers141
% Winners52.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table149

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)342.42
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.71
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago3786

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades25.82
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.19
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.57
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.90
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.50
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.39
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df42
t1.09
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.61
Sortino ratio1.05
Upside Potential Ratio2.50
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms28
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error41
t(b)-1.07
p(b)0.85
t(a)1.44
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.10
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df42
t0.91
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio0.82
Upside Potential Ratio2.25
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms28
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.01
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error41
t(b)-0.97
p(b)0.83
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.12
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df953
t1.14
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.63
Sortino ratio0.92
Upside Potential Ratio6.35
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms214
N negative terms740
N of observations954
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error952
t(b)-0.31
p(b)0.62
t(a)1.16
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-18.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.10
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df953
t0.96
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio0.75
Upside Potential Ratio6.15
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms214
N negative terms740
N of observations954
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error952
t(b)-0.33
p(b)0.63
t(a)0.98
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.16
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6806987366989824
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.50909165550586e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations43
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-36.79
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations954
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low193
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high215
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.13
Median0.16
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20.16
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-535953408
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)213
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.80
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.80
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.25
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.57
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.73
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 125 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M6short1Apr 8, 2016Apr 8, 2016$367
ES M6short1Apr 7, 2016Apr 7, 2016$367
ES M6short1Apr 4, 2016Apr 4, 2016$230
ES M6long1Apr 1, 2016Apr 1, 2016$455
ES M6short1Apr 1, 2016Apr 1, 2016($783)
ES M6long1Mar 31, 2016Mar 31, 2016($208)
ES M6short1Mar 29, 2016Mar 29, 2016($1,296)
ES M6short1Mar 24, 2016Mar 24, 2016($671)
ES M6short1Mar 23, 2016Mar 23, 2016$192
ES M6long1Mar 22, 2016Mar 22, 2016$117
ES M6short1Mar 21, 2016Mar 21, 2016($408)
ES M6long1Mar 21, 2016Mar 21, 2016($308)
ES M6long1Mar 18, 2016Mar 18, 2016$5
ES M6long1Mar 17, 2016Mar 17, 2016$880
ES M6long1Mar 16, 2016Mar 16, 2016$480
ES M6short1Mar 15, 2016Mar 15, 2016($383)
ES H6short1Mar 8, 2016Mar 8, 2016$217
ES H6long1Mar 4, 2016Mar 4, 2016($83)
ES H6short1Mar 4, 2016Mar 4, 2016($533)
ES H6short1Mar 3, 2016Mar 3, 2016($571)
ES H6long1Mar 2, 2016Mar 2, 2016$692
ES H6long1Mar 1, 2016Mar 1, 2016$1,217
ES H6short1Mar 1, 2016Mar 1, 2016($571)
ES H6short1Feb 29, 2016Feb 29, 2016$680
ES H6short1Feb 26, 2016Feb 26, 2016$680
ES H6short1Feb 25, 2016Feb 25, 2016($1,008)
ES H6long1Feb 19, 2016Feb 19, 2016$317
ES H6short1Feb 19, 2016Feb 19, 2016($296)
ES H6long1Feb 17, 2016Feb 17, 2016$342
ES H6short1Feb 12, 2016Feb 12, 2016($983)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.