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SPREVE

Futures · Started Sep 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
14.0%
Max Drawdown
77.9%
Trades
48
Win Trades
66.7%
Profit Factor
3.30
Win Months
10.3%

About this strategy

SPREVE is a fully mechanical trading system, being actually traded, using 30 minutes intraday period. It has been tested on the dax, eurotoxx50, mini dow jones, mini sp500, mini nasdaq for the last 15 years, using the same exact parameters. The system has 2 differents entries, both on the long and short side.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2014-2.440.5-1.133.781.4
2015-21.15.6-3.92.014.74.3-8.280.025.41.3-5.25.8105.5
2016-22.51.1-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.50.9-24.6
201729.630.75.7-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.60.0-0.374.2
2018-0.60.0-0.3-0.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.3
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/17/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age147 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades48
# Profitable32
% Profitable66.7%
Avg trade duration3.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown77.9%
drawdown periodAug 24, 2015 - Aug 24, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)14.0%
Avg win$2,083
Avg loss$1,275

Ratios

W:L ratio3.27
Sharpe Ratio0.49
Sortino Ratio1.13
Calmar Ratio2.88

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life288.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)97.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)14.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)15.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity4.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss66.0%
Chance of 20% account loss54.5%
Chance of 30% account loss47.5%
Chance of 40% account loss38.5%
Chance of 50% account loss20.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)8.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)4.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,275
Avg Win$2,083
# Winners32
Sum Trade PL (losers)$20,403
Sum Trade PL (winners)$66,657
Num Months Winners15
# Losers16
% Winners66.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table146

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4419.23
Avg Position Time (hrs)73.65
Avg Trade Length3.10
Last Trade Ago3486

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.11
Treynor Index0.33

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.21
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.17
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.16
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.23
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.87
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.43
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats59.99
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.78
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.24
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.20
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.20

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.62
SD0.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.10
df39
t2.04
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.20
Sortino ratio3.96
Upside Potential Ratio4.95
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.56
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms26
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.62
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.56
Covariance-0.03
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.74
Mean Square Error0.31
DF error38
t(b)-0.99
p(b)0.83
t(a)2.26
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.74
Mean0.49
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df39
t1.90
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio2.81
Upside Potential Ratio3.78
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.45
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms26
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance-0.02
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.57
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error38
t(b)-0.81
p(b)0.79
t(a)2.06
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.57
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.56
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.37
df877
t2.52
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.45
Sortino ratio3.17
Upside Potential Ratio6.04
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms793
N of observations878
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.52
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error876
t(b)2.31
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.32
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)5.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.52
Mean0.49
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.27
df877
t2.32
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio2.60
Upside Potential Ratio5.42
Upside part of mean1.02
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms793
N of observations878
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error876
t(b)2.52
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.14
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)4.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.23
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6803402679910400
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.29135869940559e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations40
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.68
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.26
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.34
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations878
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low69
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high85
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.12
Median0.19
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.19
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.31
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-518900288
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)21
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.68
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.21
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.67
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.88
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.86
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.67
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES H7long3Dec 30, 2016Mar 17, 2017$21,876
@ES Z6long2Dec 1, 2016Dec 5, 2016$1,234
@ES H6short1Feb 26, 2016Feb 26, 2016$667
@ES H6short1Feb 17, 2016Feb 18, 2016$142
@ES H6long1Feb 8, 2016Feb 9, 2016($308)
@ES H6long2Jan 6, 2016Jan 8, 2016($1,941)
@ES H6long1Jan 5, 2016Jan 5, 2016($21)
@ES H6long4Dec 31, 2015Jan 5, 2016($6,782)
@ES H6long2Dec 18, 2015Dec 22, 2015$409
@ES Z5long3Dec 3, 2015Dec 4, 2015$2,364
@ES Z5short1Nov 17, 2015Nov 20, 2015($1,258)
@ES Z5long1Nov 12, 2015Nov 16, 2015($571)
@ES Z5short1Nov 3, 2015Nov 4, 2015$80
@ES Z5short1Oct 16, 2015Oct 19, 2015$305
@ES Z5short1Oct 7, 2015Oct 7, 2015$330
@ES Z5long3Sep 29, 2015Sep 30, 2015$4,964
@ES Z5long2Sep 24, 2015Sep 24, 2015$1,309
@ES Z5long3Sep 18, 2015Sep 21, 2015$1,176
@ES Z5short1Sep 16, 2015Sep 17, 2015($696)
@ES U5short1Sep 9, 2015Sep 9, 2015$892
@ES U5long4Aug 25, 2015Aug 26, 2015$7,818
@ES U5long5Aug 24, 2015Aug 25, 2015$3,960
@ES U5long1Aug 12, 2015Aug 12, 2015$1,042
@ES U5long1Aug 3, 2015Aug 4, 2015$392
@ES U5long3Jul 24, 2015Jul 28, 2015($1,049)
@ES U5short1Jul 15, 2015Jul 15, 2015($171)
@ES U5long4Jun 28, 2015Jul 1, 2015$1,693
@ES U5short1Jun 18, 2015Jun 19, 2015($258)
@ES M5long3Jun 15, 2015Jun 16, 2015$789
@ES M5long3Jun 8, 2015Jun 9, 2015($1,337)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.