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eMini Futures Trader

Futures · Started Mar 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.9%
Max Drawdown
43.0%
Trades
189
Win Trades
43.4%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
7.2%

About this strategy

Background: Manual trading system managed by myself. I have been actively trading Equity Index Futures for three years and other financial instruments (equities, options,etc.) for over five years.

Strategy: Identify areas of low risk support and resistance at key trend reversals using momentum and Fibonacci studies.

Goal: Manage risk and limit draw downs

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20150.7-1.315.5-0.9-5.95.026.810.2-0.8-0.854.3
2016-0.9-1.011.23.7-9.5-21.0-5.011.90.18.6-0.9-0.9-8.1
2017-0.9-0.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.9
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/2/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age140 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades189
# Profitable82
% Profitable43.4%
Avg trade duration12.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.0%
drawdown periodApril 27, 2016 - Aug 22, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)2.9%
Avg win$554
Avg loss$332

Ratios

W:L ratio1.28
Sharpe Ratio0.12
Sortino Ratio0.18
Calmar Ratio1.02

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life265.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-219.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity38.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$332
Avg Win$554
# Winners82
Sum Trade PL (losers)$35,526
Sum Trade PL (winners)$45,397
Num Months Winners10
# Losers107
% Winners43.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table139

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)746.83
Avg Position Time (hrs)12.45
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago3644

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-0.71

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.07
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.24
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.92
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats16.15
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.31
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.02
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.20

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.28
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df30
t1.51
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.16
Sortino ratio2.03
Upside Potential Ratio3.34
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms19
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.02
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error29
t(b)-0.78
p(b)0.78
t(a)1.66
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
Mean0.24
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df30
t1.34
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.05
Sortino ratio1.62
Upside Potential Ratio2.92
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms19
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.02
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error29
t(b)-0.77
p(b)0.78
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.26
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.12
df687
t1.82
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.33
Sortino ratio1.93
Upside Potential Ratio7.23
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms135
N negative terms553
N of observations688
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error686
t(b)-0.36
p(b)0.64
t(a)1.84
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-31.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
Mean0.23
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df687
t1.66
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio1.70
Upside Potential Ratio6.95
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms135
N negative terms553
N of observations688
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error686
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.62
t(a)1.67
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.51
Treynor index (mean / b)-34.01
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.06
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.93
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6823923496779776
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.87461666348061e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-4.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.24
Number of observations688
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low122
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high141
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.79
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.16
Median0.20
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.65
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-401933568
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)117
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.19
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.86
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.73
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 187 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES Z6short1Sep 23, 2016Oct 11, 2016$1,592
@ES Z6short1Sep 19, 2016Sep 20, 2016($396)
@ES Z6long2Sep 13, 2016Sep 15, 2016$1,372
@ES Z6long1Sep 13, 2016Sep 13, 2016($396)
@ES Z6short1Sep 12, 2016Sep 12, 2016($408)
@ES U6long1Sep 7, 2016Sep 9, 2016($296)
@ES U6short1Aug 29, 2016Aug 30, 2016$467
@ES U6long1Aug 26, 2016Aug 29, 2016$592
@ES U6long1Aug 25, 2016Aug 26, 2016($8)
@ES U6long1Aug 25, 2016Aug 25, 2016($8)
@ES U6long1Aug 24, 2016Aug 24, 2016($271)
@ES U6long2Aug 19, 2016Aug 23, 2016$1,172
@ES U6long2Aug 16, 2016Aug 19, 2016($266)
@ES U6long1Aug 3, 2016Aug 4, 2016$367
@ES U6short1Aug 1, 2016Aug 1, 2016($433)
@ES U6short1Jul 27, 2016Jul 27, 2016($8)
@ES U6short1Jul 18, 2016Jul 20, 2016($283)
@ES U6short1Jul 18, 2016Jul 18, 2016($21)
@ES U6short1Jul 12, 2016Jul 14, 2016($508)
@ES U6short1Jul 8, 2016Jul 8, 2016($333)
@ES U6long1Jul 6, 2016Jul 6, 2016$692
@ES U6short1Jun 30, 2016Jun 30, 2016($408)
@ES U6short2Jun 29, 2016Jun 29, 2016($866)
@ES U6long1Jun 27, 2016Jun 27, 2016($383)
@ES U6long1Jun 27, 2016Jun 27, 2016($383)
@ES U6long2Jun 24, 2016Jun 24, 2016($1,016)
@ES U6long2Jun 24, 2016Jun 24, 2016$9
@ES U6long1Jun 23, 2016Jun 23, 2016($514)
@ES U6long2Jun 23, 2016Jun 23, 2016($1,166)
@ES U6long1Jun 22, 2016Jun 23, 2016$567

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.