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First market neutral

Stocks · Started Aug 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
32.3%
Max Drawdown
38.8%
Trades
169
Win Trades
71.0%
Profit Factor
68.20
Win Months
61.2%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2015-0.13.04.02.2-2.17.1
2016-7.32.815.42.53.34.45.83.2-3.5-3.514.410.455.9
2017-3.013.4-4.4-3.21.34.61.1-1.42.3-2.13.67.720.0
2018-4.4-2.4-5.23.65.03.610.67.613.8-18.32.4-13.1-1.7
20198.613.24.82.7-0.42.13.2-0.3-1.48.16.27.868.7
20207.20.0-16.48.3-3.421.020.1-7.92.210.22.346.7
2021-3.42.91.04.6-2.12.74.210.6-4.20.0
20221.04.30.1-12.27.31.10.0-7.0-4.420.5-9.7-0.1
20237.1-0.98.9-2.58.92.23.8-4.7-6.0-3.618.612.750.4
202412.212.8-6.8-8.44.7-1.3-8.45.73.4-0.2-3.9-8.7-2.1
20251.8-4.9-1.5-8.310.87.715.32.2-4.629.1-7.0-3.336.2
202619.6-13.9-4.69.788.20.010.70.0133.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/3/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age136 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades169
# Profitable120
% Profitable71.0%
Avg trade duration294.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown38.8%
drawdown periodMarch 11, 2024 - April 07, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)32.3%
Avg win$17,949
Avg loss$706

Ratios

W:L ratio68.23
Sharpe Ratio0.84
Sortino Ratio1.59
Calmar Ratio10.21

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.56
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life270.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)1913.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)32.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)32.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$706
Avg Win$17,949
# Winners120
Sum Trade PL (losers)$34,606
Sum Trade PL (winners)$2,153,834
Num Months Winners79
# Losers49
% Winners71.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct60625

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table135

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1572834.25
Avg Position Time (hrs)26213.90
Avg Trade Length1092.20
Last Trade Ago926

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta1.17
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.04
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.03
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats67.27
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.57
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.02
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.78
Hold-and-Hope Ratio42.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.43
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.29
df22
t3.29
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.86
Sortino ratio8.71
Upside Potential Ratio9.95
Upside part of mean1.64
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.70
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms6
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion1.43
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance0.15
r0.76
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error21
t(b)5.40
p(b)0.07
t(a)1.63
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.23
Treynor index (mean / b)1.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
Mean1.22
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.22
df22
t3.19
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.78
Sortino ratio6.75
Upside Potential Ratio7.96
Upside part of mean1.44
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.60
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms6
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion1.22
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance0.13
r0.78
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error21
t(b)5.76
p(b)0.06
t(a)1.65
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.03
Treynor index (mean / b)0.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean1.94
SD0.96
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.02
df511
t2.83
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.43
Sortino ratio4.99
Upside Potential Ratio11.55
Upside part of mean4.50
Downside part of mean-2.55
Upside SD0.88
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms272
N negative terms240
N of observations512
Mean of predictor0.70
Mean of criterion1.94
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.96
Covariance0.19
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.85
Mean Square Error0.62
DF error510
t(b)15.56
p(b)0
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.97
Treynor index (mean / b)1.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.85
Mean1.57
SD0.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.93
df511
t2.70
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.34
Sortino ratio3.85
Upside Potential Ratio10.29
Upside part of mean4.21
Downside part of mean-2.64
Upside SD0.71
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms272
N negative terms240
N of observations512
Mean of predictor0.64
Mean of criterion1.57
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.81
Covariance0.17
r0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.67
Mean Square Error0.42
DF error510
t(b)17.29
p(b)0
t(a)1.43
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.58
Treynor index (mean / b)1.10
Jensen alpha (a)0.67
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean4.18
SD1.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.42
df130
t1.72
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.20
Sortino ratio7.00
Upside Potential Ratio14.93
Upside part of mean8.91
Downside part of mean-4.73
Upside SD1.63
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.47
Mean of criterion4.18
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion1.72
Covariance0.50
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.45
Mean Square Error2.04
DF error129
t(b)7.66
p(b)0.16
t(a)0.71
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.52
Treynor index (mean / b)2.25
Jensen alpha (a)1.45
Mean3.05
SD1.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.16
df130
t1.54
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.95
Sortino ratio4.84
Upside Potential Ratio12.65
Upside part of mean7.98
Downside part of mean-4.92
Upside SD1.26
Downside SD0.63
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.33
Mean of criterion3.05
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion1.40
Covariance0.43
r0.60
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.91
Mean Square Error1.28
DF error129
t(b)8.42
p(b)0.14
t(a)0.56
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.23
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.12
Treynor index (mean / b)1.90
Jensen alpha (a)0.91
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11.01
Median1.10
Quartile 31.18
Maximum1.53
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.05
Mean of quarter 31.15
Mean of quarter 41.36
Inter Quartile Range0.17
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.53
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations512
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.95
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low29
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high34
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.95
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.09
Median0.12
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations40
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.31
Number of observations9
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.06
Median0.12
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.15
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high0.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-21.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.29
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.49
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.49
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-400243584
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)392
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)5.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.47
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs12.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.96
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)11.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)3.95
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs19.61
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal42.60
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)7.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)20.74
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)53.57
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs59.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal135.22

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
HAR long40Dec 7, 2015Jan 15, 2016($812)
BOH long58Dec 7, 2015Jan 15, 2016($579)
CI long28Dec 7, 2015Jan 15, 2016($68)
FRT long26Dec 7, 2015Jan 15, 2016$88
MBI long650Dec 7, 2015Dec 7, 2015($12)
CVX long60Nov 10, 2015Nov 30, 2015($37)
ED long88Nov 10, 2015Nov 30, 2015($40)
FL long67Nov 11, 2015Nov 30, 2015$116
BC long100Nov 9, 2015Nov 30, 2015($40)
BIO long39Nov 9, 2015Nov 30, 2015$19
BKH long122Nov 10, 2015Nov 30, 2015($233)
DIS long47Nov 10, 2015Nov 30, 2015($123)
DE long72Nov 10, 2015Nov 30, 2015$215
CVS long56Nov 10, 2015Nov 30, 2015($190)
CBRL long41Nov 10, 2015Nov 30, 2015($300)
CLFD long335Nov 10, 2015Nov 30, 2015($885)
FRT long38Nov 11, 2015Nov 30, 2015$157
GD long38Nov 11, 2015Nov 30, 2015$98
AVY long85Nov 9, 2015Nov 30, 2015$40
AZZ long100Nov 9, 2015Nov 27, 2015$206
DOV long87Nov 10, 2015Nov 24, 2015$216
CPB long115Nov 10, 2015Nov 24, 2015$289
BMS long122Nov 10, 2015Nov 23, 2015$212
ESL long70Nov 11, 2015Nov 20, 2015$698
COST long35Nov 10, 2015Nov 19, 2015$208
EFX long55Nov 10, 2015Nov 19, 2015$209
EMR long114Nov 10, 2015Nov 19, 2015$259
CHD long68Nov 10, 2015Nov 19, 2015$278
D short80Nov 10, 2015Nov 13, 2015($5)
BK short125Nov 10, 2015Nov 13, 2015$131

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.