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Volatility Trader

Stocks · Started Jan 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.0%
Max Drawdown
15.2%
Trades
30
Win Trades
63.3%
Profit Factor
3
Win Months
7.0%

About this strategy

Trades XIV ETF (which contains of short VIX futures) based on a proprietary algorithm.
Holds positions overnight.

ALL REBEL TRADING STRATEGIES ARE FULLY AUTOMATED ON OUR OWN PYTHON BASED TRADING PLATFORM - NO MANUAL INTERACTION REQUIRED
We autotrade all our strategies on our own Interactive Brokers account.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20161.9-6.723.3-1.9-0.6-6.523.5-0.12.2-1.43.93.742.8
2017-1.24.82.52.1-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.35.9
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/11/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age130 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades30
# Profitable19
% Profitable63.3%
Avg trade duration14.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown15.2%
drawdown periodFeb 02, 2016 - Feb 12, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)4.0%
Avg win$1,205
Avg loss$719

Ratios

W:L ratio2.97
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.51
Calmar Ratio1.46

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life294.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-251.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated86.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$719
Avg Win$1,205
# Winners19
Sum Trade PL (losers)$7,910
Sum Trade PL (winners)$22,894
Num Months Winners9
# Losers11
% Winners63.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct633

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table129

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)20658.92
Avg Position Time (hrs)344.32
Avg Trade Length14.30
Last Trade Ago3405

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.24

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.83
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.32
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.33
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats20.47
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.21
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.35
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.55

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.17
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df31
t1.64
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.21
Sortino ratio2.46
Upside Potential Ratio3.68
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms21
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error30
t(b)0.15
p(b)0.44
t(a)1.41
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)13.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.15
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df31
t1.56
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio2.17
Upside Potential Ratio3.37
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms21
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error30
t(b)0.26
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.31
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)6.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.16
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.39
df702
t2.28
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.59
Sortino ratio2.21
Upside Potential Ratio6.33
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms183
N negative terms520
N of observations703
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error701
t(b)1.85
p(b)0.03
t(a)2.10
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)7.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.15
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.33
df702
t2.19
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.53
Sortino ratio2.08
Upside Potential Ratio6.19
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms183
N negative terms520
N of observations703
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error701
t(b)1.90
p(b)0.03
t(a)2.03
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)6.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.24
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6806576660742144
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.55531420886333e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations32
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations703
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low108
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high156
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-403865856
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)10
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.50
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.46
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.26
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 82 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XIV long315May 8, 2017May 8, 2017$16
AGG long360Mar 20, 2017May 1, 2017$328
XIV long387Apr 17, 2017Apr 17, 2017$530
XIV long360Mar 24, 2017Mar 24, 2017($749)
XIV long655Mar 3, 2017Mar 20, 2017$2,299
AGG long353Feb 16, 2017Mar 3, 2017($56)
XIV long378Mar 1, 2017Mar 1, 2017($499)
XIV long320Feb 3, 2017Feb 16, 2017$1,422
AGG long324Dec 15, 2016Feb 3, 2017$266
XIV long422Jan 24, 2017Jan 24, 2017$570
XIV long442Jan 20, 2017Jan 20, 2017$212
VXX long1127Jan 12, 2017Jan 12, 2017($782)
XIV long461Jan 6, 2017Jan 6, 2017($299)
XIV long521Dec 19, 2016Dec 19, 2016$251
XIV long2763Nov 16, 2016Dec 15, 2016$2,700
AGG long225Oct 12, 2016Nov 15, 2016($540)
XIV long603Oct 24, 2016Oct 24, 2016$62
XIV long604Oct 24, 2016Oct 24, 2016($5)
XIV long555Sep 26, 2016Oct 12, 2016$428
AGG long228Aug 2, 2016Sep 26, 2016$20
XIV long771Jul 5, 2016Aug 2, 2016$6,325
AGG long226Jun 13, 2016Jul 4, 2016$230
XIV long625Jun 3, 2016Jun 13, 2016($2,199)
AGG long226May 20, 2016Jun 3, 2016$155
XIV long703May 12, 2016May 20, 2016($117)
AGG long227Apr 29, 2016May 12, 2016$49
XIV long723Apr 26, 2016Apr 27, 2016$197
XIV long800Feb 15, 2016Apr 1, 2016$6,691
XIV long800Feb 10, 2016Feb 12, 2016($805)
XIV long800Jan 25, 2016Feb 9, 2016($1,925)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.