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Acorn Fund

Equity · Options · Started Apr 2025

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
27.5%
Max Drawdown
63.5%
Trades
2446
Win Trades
30.0%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
41.2%
Subscribe Full access for $250/month

About this strategy

Trader Name: Marley Holiday
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Experience In Markets: 25 years
Preferred Markets: US Markets

Please contact me for further information: holidaymarley@gmail.com

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20253.31.1-17.21.1-9.0118.7-10.4-10.6-4.832.6
20262.7-5.3-25.2-15.442.1-19.8-27.8109.56.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/2/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$70,000
Age17 months
C2 Rank334
What it tradesOptions
# Trades2446
# Profitable735
% Profitable30.0%
Avg trade duration4.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown63.5%
drawdown periodOct 06, 2025 - July 22, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)27.5%
Avg win$501
Avg loss$197

Ratios

W:L ratio1.10
Sharpe Ratio0.53
Sortino Ratio1.26
Calmar Ratio2.34

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.15
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life36.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)4.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)27.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)42.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity30.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss76.0%
Chance of 20% account loss61.0%
Chance of 30% account loss39.0%
Chance of 40% account loss25.0%
Chance of 50% account loss6.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)498
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)743
C2 Score334
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)549

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187214
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$197
Avg Win$501
# Winners735
Sum Trade PL (losers)$336,356
Sum Trade PL (winners)$368,459
Num Months Winners7
# Losers1711
% Winners30.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table17

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5753.87
Avg Position Time (hrs)95.90
Avg Trade Length4
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)11.25
Daily leverage (max)175.79

Regression

Alpha0.10
Beta0.74
Treynor Index0.20

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.60
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.68
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.21
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.15

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.63
SD1.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df6
t0.44
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.09
Sortino ratio2.38
Upside Potential Ratio5.06
Upside part of mean1.33
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.98
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms5
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.63
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion1.08
Covariance0.20
r0.84
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.59
Mean Square Error0.42
DF error5
t(b)3.43
p(b)0.01
t(a)-1.49
p(a)0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta7.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-1.59
Mean0.26
SD0.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df6
t0.24
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.84
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio3.60
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.73
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms5
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.84
Covariance0.14
r0.82
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.45
Mean Square Error0.28
DF error5
t(b)3.17
p(b)0.01
t(a)-1.64
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.82
Treynor index (mean / b)0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-1.45
VaR(95%)0.31
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.38
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean1.60
SD1.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df157
t0.84
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.61
Sortino ratio3.24
Upside Potential Ratio9.34
Upside part of mean4.61
Downside part of mean-3.01
Upside SD1.38
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms87
N of observations158
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion1.60
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion1.47
Covariance0.05
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.24
Mean Square Error2.14
DF error156
t(b)1.61
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.65
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.98
Treynor index (mean / b)2.32
Jensen alpha (a)1.24
Mean0.79
SD1.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df157
t0.51
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.18
Sortino ratio1.47
Upside Potential Ratio7.34
Upside part of mean3.93
Downside part of mean-3.14
Upside SD1.06
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms87
N of observations158
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.79
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion1.19
Covariance0.05
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.49
Mean Square Error1.41
DF error156
t(b)1.78
p(b)0.43
t(a)0.32
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.52
Treynor index (mean / b)1.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean1.88
SD1.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.16
df130
t0.82
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.93
Sortino ratio3.47
Upside Potential Ratio10.01
Upside part of mean5.41
Downside part of mean-3.54
Upside SD1.52
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion1.88
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion1.61
Covariance0.06
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.13
Mean Square Error2.55
DF error129
t(b)1.91
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.67
Treynor index (mean / b)1.57
Jensen alpha (a)1.13
Mean0.91
SD1.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df130
t0.49
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.46
Sortino ratio1.54
Upside Potential Ratio7.83
Upside part of mean4.60
Downside part of mean-3.70
Upside SD1.17
Downside SD0.59
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion0.91
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion1.31
Covariance0.05
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error1.67
DF error129
t(b)2.11
p(b)0.38
t(a)0.14
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.93
Treynor index (mean / b)0.84
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.91
Median0.95
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.75
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 20.94
Mean of quarter 30.96
Mean of quarter 41.39
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.75
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations158
Minimum0.78
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.90
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations131
Minimum0.78
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.90
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.67
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.34
Quartile 10.34
Median0.34
Quartile 30.34
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.37
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.12
Quartile 30.28
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.20
Mean of quarter 40.54
Inter Quartile Range0.25
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-425860704
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)289
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.32
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.89
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.34
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.42
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.13
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.86
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.26

Trading record

Placed 5886 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPXW2627H7715 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$108
XSP2627H770 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$30
SPXW2627H7725 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$618
SPXW2627H7725 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026($232)
XSP2627T771 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026($27)
TQQQ2628H69 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 27, 2026$70
SPXW2627H7715 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$18
SPXW2627H7725 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$38
SPXW2627H7720 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$378
NUGT2628T200 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 27, 2026($142)
SPXW2627H7720 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026($252)
SPXW2627H7715 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$28
XSP2627T769 long1Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026($67)
NVDL2604I31 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 27, 2026$200
XSP2626H768 long4Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($166)
SPXW2626H7680 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($262)
SPXW2626T7670 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($272)
SPXW2626H7680 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($287)
SPXW2626T7675 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($122)
SPXW2626H7675 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($212)
SPXW2626H7675 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($102)
XSP2626T769 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026$65
SPXW2626H7680 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($252)
SPXW2626H7690 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($232)
SPXW2626H7685 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($222)
SPXW2626H7680 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026$38
SPXW2626H7680 long1Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($242)
SPXW2625T7670 long1Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026$78
SPXW2625H7665 long1Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026($32)
SPXW2625T7660 long1Aug 25, 2026Aug 25, 2026$68

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.